The Probability Gap — Weekly Email
Read the gap betweenprice and forecast
One focused email comparing a prediction-market price with an independent forecast, the evidence behind each number, and the risks the headline gap can hide.
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- Brief each week
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- Probabilities compared
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- Trade instructions
A briefing built for scrutiny
A gap worth examining
See where a traded probability differs from an independent forecast, with the size of the gap stated up front.
The evidence on both sides
Review the data, market context, and contract details that support—or challenge—the forecast.
Risk in plain language
Understand what could invalidate the thesis before deciding whether a market deserves more research.
Put the next probability gap in your inbox
Follow the market, inspect the forecast, and decide what deserves a closer look. The weekly email is free to receive.