Track conviction at whale scale
Monitor outsized bets and wallet flows across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and other prediction exchanges. See when major accounts add exposure, reduce risk or rotate capital between markets.
Put whale activity in context
A large position reveals conviction, not certainty. Use the activity feed to discover markets worth investigating, then compare the entry price with your own probability estimate before following the trade.
whale-watch@maximizeroi:~$
ACTIVITY|--:--:-- UTC
24h whale volume
$18.4M+12.6%
Net wallet inflow
$3.1M+8.9%
Active whales
47+5
Largest single trade
$482.5K−3.2%
| Age | Account | Contract | Position | Entry | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9s | 0x9f4c…3aE1 | US Presidential Election 2028 — Republican | YES | 0.46 | $482.5K |
| 41s | 0x2b7d…9C40 | Fed cuts rates in September? | NO | 0.63 | $261.8K |
| 1m | whale.kalshi | CPI above 3.2% YoY (July print) | YES | 0.38 | $198.0K |
| 2m | 0xA1f9…77bC | BTC above $150k by EOY | YES | 0.29 | $355.2K |
| 3m | 0x5e02…1D8a | OpenAI releases GPT-6 before Q4 | NO | 0.71 | $74.6K |
| 5m | 0xF3c8…B22e | Champions League winner — Real Madrid | YES | 0.22 | $142.9K |
| 6m | sharp_dc | Senate control after midterms — GOP | NO | 0.52 | $56.3K |
| 8m | 0x7a11…E9f0 | Government shutdown before Oct 1 | YES | 0.44 | $121.4K |
| 11m | 0xC90b…4Aa2 | ETH ETF staking approved in 2026 | YES | 0.33 | $289.7K |
| 14m | 0x18de…6F3c | SpaceX Starship reaches orbit this quarter | YES | 0.68 | $63.1K |
- FUNDS IN$1.25M0x9f4c…3aE1PolymarketUSDC bridged from Coinbase32s
- ROTATION$540.0K0x2b7d…9C40PolymarketElection NO → Fed YES2m
- FUNDS OUT$820.0K0xA1f9…77bCPolymarketCashed out to cold wallet4m
- FUNDS IN$300.0Kwhale.kalshiKalshiACH funding cleared7m
- ROTATION$175.0K0xF3c8…B22ePolymarketSports book → Politics book9m
- FUNDS IN$460.0K0xC90b…4Aa2PolymarketUSDC bridged from Arbitrum13m
- FUNDS OUT$88.0Ksharp_dcPredictItMonthly profit sweep18m
$ illustrative activity snapshot — confirm current market details before acting
Convert whale flow into your own thesis
Use the tape as a research lead, then test the price against your forecast. The EV and Kelly calculator translates that edge into a disciplined stake.